Dated: June 27th, 2023 NOAA Fisheries published report: Abundance of the Eastern North Pacific Gray Whales 2022/2023

In summary:

The Gray Whale population has declined to 14,526 compared to 16,650 in 2021/2022. This represents a drop of 2,124 gray whales or 12.8% less whales in one year. At the peak of population counts done in 2015/2016 the count was 26,960, the recent count of 14,526 is 12,434 less whales or a 46% decline in 7 years.

The Abundance count by NOAA is an estimate of the total Gray Whale Population. It is conducted in a shore based observation station at Granite Canyon off the coast of California. A small team of trained observers split the day into six 90 minutes sessions. The observers rotate shifts starting on December 1, 2022 and ending this year on February 24th. Both the start and end dates had a zero count. The highest daily date number was 156 on January 20th, 2023 and January 27th 2023. Estimates are done based on series of calculations that include correction factors for many variables including the weather, observer errors, night time migration numbers passing the transect and past counts. The median migration date was day 53 which was 6 days later than the 2021/2022 date. The impact of that finding and significance is unknown. Continued studies on health assessments, food abundance, human impacts, vessel strikes and climate changes are needed to determine the mechanism of changes in the timing of the migration and abundance estimates.

The most recent count is comparable to the 1968-1970 counts which are among the lowest counts since counting estimates began in the late 1960’s. Gray whales were removed from the Endangered Species Act protection in 1994. Numbers rebounded after a prior Unusual Mortality Event in 1999/2000.

There is good news:

Fewer whales died or stranded in Mexico this year and the calf production is up. More mothers with calfs were seen than the last 5 seasons.

Fewer gray whales strandings along the West Coast and less than during the peak years of the Unusual Mortality Event UME.

Population estimates are typically done every other year but with the continued concern and ongoing UME another count will be conducted December 2023-February 2024 during the southern migration. Dr David Weller Director of the Marine Mammal and Turtle Division said “We continue to monitor the population closely. We want to pick up on any signs of change in the concerning trend the population has undergone recently.”